torsdag, maj 26, 2022

Principløse bladsmørere

Hykleriet er til at tage og føle på:


https://nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-05-26-rusland-blokerer-adgang-til-politiken-efter-artikler-pa-russisk


Til Politiken siger Christian Jensen, at han ikke er overrasket over blokeringen.


- Det viser, hvor alvorlig en situation vi er i, når et land ikke mener, at dets egen befolkning kan tåle at høre fri og uafhængig journalistik fra andre landes medier, siger han.


Og det har han jo sådan set ret i. Det er bare ærgerligt at han tilsyneladende kun er bekymret om Rusland: prøv fx at tilgå www.rt.com uden en VPN forbindelse.


Det danske riges grundlov


§ 77

Enhver er berettiget til på tryk, i skrift og tale at offentliggøre sine tanker, dog under ansvar for domstolene. Censur og andre forebyggende forholdsregler kan ingensinde påny indføres.


Per

torsdag, marts 10, 2022

History's guide (A comment to one sided DW war propaganda)

This is a comment to a DW YouTube video:


Speaking of history, so as not to get too one sided here:

The second Polish War (1812): 

108.000 polish troops march on Moscow under the command of Napoleon Bonaparte; armies and soldiers from all over Europe join the attack.

Operation Barbarossa (1941):

Army Group South:

The Slovak Expeditionary Army Group (45.000 men) 

Royal Hungarian Army Mobile Corps (25.000 men)

Italian Expeditionary Corps (3.000 officers and 59.000 men)

Army Group Antonescu: 3rd and 4th Romanian Armies (325.690 men)

Later added:

14th SS-Volunteer Division "Galician" later renamed 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Ukrainian)

If Eastern Europe is paranoid over the Russians? well, maybe they should better understand the Russian ditto. One could in particular examine the role of Poland, Lithuania & Ukraine in the recently failed coup in White Russia: Bring up a map of the perished Polish, Lithuanian Commonwealth - and see that involvement in a more... shall we say: historical light?

Polish-Soviet war:

In 1919, while the Soviet Red Army was still preoccupied with the Russian Civil War of 1917–1922, the Polish Army took most of Lithuania and Belarus [White Russia]. By July 1919, Polish forces had taken control of much of Western Ukraine [Galicia/Volhynia] and had emerged victorious from the Polish–Ukrainian War of November 1918 to July 1919.

History is a guide to human behavior - and whenever you're told only one side of it: it's your God damn job to find out what it is that they prefer that you don't know... especially on German TV! 

The human patterns on the Eastern front are very old: compare what's happening now to what happened in 3.000BC to the Yamnaya culture... later to the Cimmerians and then the Goths...

søndag, oktober 17, 2021

The use of climate

I wrote this in a correspondence on YouTube, thought it covered in a concise way my thinking on the subject of climate change. So I put it here for the record.  

 Study history: it's evident from the archeological and written records that human migration patterns are roughly consistent and that the type of climate related calamities has been equally so. There are shifts between warm and cold regimes witch change the hydrology patterns on a global scale and hence the grow zones. Humans dependent on a certain survival technique must move according to those zonal shifts in climate.

What is further evident is that geomagnetic shifts relate to those climate shifts. We have magnetite in our brains like the birds and many other species: so at a core level we're programmed to follow certain migration routes when significant change sets in.

I find it particularly fascinating that as the geomagnetic poles are currently moving at a rapid pace China is no longer seen as the promised land of milk and honey for the globalist merchant class: Instead South-east Asia will be shortly.

If you study ancient cultures you will see that they were all subject to this growth and decline pattern. This insight escapes us because the ruling classes always in the end falls back on the tried and tested formula: obey - or your world will end... your TV is your church and the "experts" your priests.

lørdag, februar 24, 2018

In the dead of night

Oh I remember when the world was young
When we in sunny meadows played
When we on loves wings were flung
As the sun on the heaven stayed
We kissed with blooming soft petals its rays

As the frosts of hell now grip my soul
A time of wonder I vaguely behold
When everything in the world was new
And I felt the pleasure of admiring you
But a night too cold has set the sun, and hence my memory too

The remains of the day are ghostly rot
As I go in search of my final lot
Under a pale moon my sight will fail
And of my minds eye I shall avail
To see you vainly howling, under a moon so very pale

Hold on to fake and wakeful purpose
Keep busy with amazing pose
Till that ghastly touch of night, your soul receives in dose
And that howl becomes a melody so sad
That no distractions anymore will keep a man from going mad

Once the world was veiled in innocence
As a sun burned a clear blue sky
Now a dark night rules and my star spells past tense
Under the world its fleeting light, in murky waters die
To conceive a seed for fire to light the world up high

And all the ten thousand things will be forgiven
When anew, a sun ascends unto the heavens
From that dimly light of dying night
The bounty of creation is once again in sight
Rise and shine you happy few who endured the long, long night

Per

tirsdag, februar 20, 2018

The North Atlantic climatic regimes

In the next weeks the weather over much of the world is going to change from a (relatively) warm and moist climate to a cooler and rainier one. The jet stream travelling over the north Atlantic Ocean will be split in two. Directing low and high pressure systems away from a warming zonal (east/west) transport mode into a cooling meridional mode (south/north). This at least according to simulations (And we all know how much we can trust simulations – right?). Well, no matter the outcome it provides me with some illuminating graphical presentations – courtesy of the Danish Meteorological
Institute. Here’s the outline:

Idealized causality


South Atlantic mode: The high pressure system located roughly at the Azores Islands will weaken and displace west towards the Caribbean and the Mexican Gulf - suppressing low pressure convection in that region – while being replaced in the east by a low pressure system, that will replace the suppressed (high pressure easterly trade winds) convection regime in the Mediterranean Sea with an enhanced one.

North Atlantic mode: The Greenland high pressure system will weaken and displace east to Scandinavia while the Icelandic low pressure system will displace west towards the Labrador Sea causing warming and enhanced precipitation in Greenland and the reverse in Scandinavia/Northern Europe.

In effect this is a reversal of the warming regime which transports equatorial waters into the arctic: This atmospheric meridional mode of transport translates into a southerly shift of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone -: The location of warm equatorial surface waters), because the placement of a low pressure system by the Azores Islands essentially reverses the direction of the trade winds enhancing the Northwest African monsoon system by pushing warm equatorial waters south along the African plate boundary. A statistical enhancement of this regime on decadal and centennial time scales will suppress the ability of the North Atlantic gyre systems (circulating ocean currents subject to wind regimes) to transport equatorial surface waters into the arctic (the AMOC: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).

Further: Due to the plate configuration of the South American continent it causes a split of the equatorial zonal transport of warm water currents caused by easterly trade winds and the general circulation of the Atlantic central gyres: One moving south along the plate boundary into the Circumpolar Current around Antarctica another into the Caribbean gyre systems up the the east American coast and into the North Atlantic and eventually Arctic gyre systems. Consequently, a southerly shift of the ITCZ will effectively direct more warm water to the circumpolar current due to the splitting caused by South America and hence lesser amounts can be attributed to the North Atlantic section of the AMOC.

The warming and cooling regimes of the North Atlantic which on decadal, centennial and millennial timescales have numerous causes and effects and translates to the dominant mode of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are documented in the Greenland Ice-cores; by which you can almost set the clock for civilizational collapse and migrations of peoples. The general effect of the AO, which is a product of temperature regimes in the arctic serves to displace the climate zones north/south and thus historically - and constantly - have moved peoples which survival technologies were adapted to certain climates: just like other animals, and plants as well, we have danced to the rhythm of climate change trough out our history.

Significant historical events


  • 3000-BC: Migrations from the Pontic Steppe brings the tamed horse to Europe and the Middle East (i.e. Yamna, Corded ware and Bell Beaker).
  • 2200-BC: Collapse of Old kingdom in Egypt and of the Akkadian empire in the Levant. Chariots from the steppe arrives in Europe and the Middle East.
  • 1200: Late bronze age collapse of Mycenaean and Hittite civilizations and end to Egyptian empire.
  • 100-AD: the Alans followed by the Huns and the Turkish.
  • 600-AD: the Vikings.
  • 1100-AD: the Mongol Golden Horde

All dates are subject to margin of errors but should be fairly correct within ca. +/- 100 years.

Per

tirsdag, februar 07, 2017

Supernatural

I have recently aquired a technical report from DMI (Danish Meterological Institute) on air temperatures for several location in Greenland. In response to the fairly clear picture these data present I would like to post some observations for the DMI which I believe a responsible journalist ought to pick up and relay - and maybe even ask some critical questions while they're at it (Who am I kidding?).

The reason I surmise is the following:

There has been no significant warming in Greenland since the 1940'es the data shows, an observation likewise born out by DMI's own statement on their research into sea surface temperatures in Greenland coastal regions, where the conclusion tranlates to:


Generally the sediment cores show, that calving has been extensive not only in the first decade of 21st century but also in the 30'es and 40'es of the 20th century. Both periods have seen relavtively mild air conditions and warmer subsurface, sea temperatures, as well as less sea ice.

This happy news however seem to be somewhat absent from press coverage on the topic: Since today in an article in a danish newspaper I could read this amazing statement:

Til BBC siger seniorforsker Friederikke Otto fra Oxford-universitetets klimaforskningsinstitut, at før industrialderens begyndelse ville en sådan hedebølge have været »ekstremt sjælden« og statistisk set noget i retning af en 1.000 års begivenhed.

Which roughly translates to:

To the BBC senior scientist Friederikke Otto from Oxford-university Climate research center says, that before the industrial age such a heatwave [in the area of svalbard, east of north Greenland] would have been extremely rare - likely a 1.000 year event.



And as for the DMI? Well, Martin Stendel - a climate & polar research scientist at the DMI -  firmly back up this lady's remarkable assesment, that the warmth can only be explained in terms of human influence on the climate.

It has become a rule by now, that a climate scientist can say anything to the press and get it on print as a matter of truth (They are the priests - sorry, experts, after all). Unfortunately for Friedrikke & Martin reality bears no resemblence to their claims (priests rarely are in touch with reality - but they don't care: they get to eat steak), and it can be quite easily demonstrated.

To that purpose we must look at the DATA!

To do that we establish a fairly logical correlation between icecore data, seasurface data and airtemperatures in the north Atlantic. Not surprisingly the data show, that the icecores registers warmth in Greenland as the Atlantic Ocean temperatures go up - the air temperatures
follow the same pattern.

It is thus fairly safe to logically conclude that icecores reflect changes in both sea and air temperatures, and that these temperatures are indicative of heat transported by the ocean waters of the Gulf Stream into the Arctic basins.

Now we can illustrate using the icecores, that the air temperatures on Svalbard are very likely to have been higher at almost any time you care to pick before the industrial era, than they are today.

There are some further conclusions: either the climatologists are incompetent or we are being straight out lied to. It's either that or these people are now so convinced by their own hype, that they've forsaken reality for an oblivious fantasy. You can make your own assumptions about the media, but I think that in general people are becomming aware of the problems with journalists. Unfortunately this is reckless, careless and shamefull misuse of the public trust.



søndag, januar 22, 2012

Unnatural

Recently I stumpled upon this graph on the WUWT Ocean Oscillations refference page:


It's an undetrended AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) graph. Normaly, what you get, if you research the AMO on say Wikipedia, is this graphics:


And then you get this definition:

The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the AMO index may alias effects of global warming.

Ever since I first read this, I have been wondering what the abolished trend would look like. However, it can be time consuming in the extreme to hunt these datasets down, and my first attempts failed, until I saw the term on WUWT: not detrended. - That did the job with Google.

So let me show you some graphs I've made or collected, which I firmly believe call into question the premis for this somewhat biased procedure. I got myself an undetrended AMO dataset, calculated the anomalies and made comparisons with some other datasets.

First graph shows the difference between the AMO datasets: detrended & undetrended. The detrended dataset obviously have zero trend (yellow) and the undetrended dataset has a trend of 0.4 degrees C. Is this important? Oh, yes: it's extremely important.

Next graph shows Nasa GISSTemp dataset and the undetrended (what a weird word) AMO anomalies. Normally I would be forced to include a second Y axis, when comparing trends in two very different datasets (One is regional SST, the other global atmosphere). Not in this case though: the  intensities match to a tee.


Notice that while the GISS Temp data depart from the AMO around 1970 the UAH data seem a somewhat better fit during this period. Is this coincidental? Not very likely, no... GISS manipulates the data, and the result is very often a warming trend. Click the right handside image to play an animation, which slides between two GISS U.S. temperature anomaly charts:

The first dataset is from 2007 and the second (PDF, Fig. 6) is from 1999. I know of no reasonable argument, which would justify concistently making the past colder and the present warmer. Nevertheless GISS is relentless.

The AMO matches phases of solar cycle length as well as it matches global temps, U.S. Temps and Nortern Hemisphere temps:

So what's going on? I think it has to do with the fact, that the Atlantic of all the worlds oceans has the only major inlet to the Arctic Ocean; which in the unlikely event, that you did not hear about it, is currently melting it's summer sea ice. In short: it's been warming in the Arctic. Not surprisingly this warming follows the AMO anomaly. Probably the Arctic IS the AMO and by extension 'global' warming caused by the sun. Why is it not co2 warming the Arctic and then warming the Atlantic?
This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the AMO index may alias effects of global warming.
This statement makes the rather absurd assumption, that any AMO SST warming beyond 1 degree must be due to co2. Which is arguably false:


Greenland is located right where the AMO is most influential. The GISP II icecore data show plenty of natural variation from a time, where co2 never rose above 280 ppm. Al Gore in the film 'An inconvenient truth' uses Vostock (Antarctic) ice core proxies as global indicators of both temperatures and CO2 reaching 700.000 years back into the Pleiocene to show that the two are correlated. Actually, according to the chart on the left (GISP II, Arctic) temperature and co2, throughout the holocene, seem inversely related.

All this being true, it is then either wrong, deceptive or both to argue that virtually any rising SST trend in the North Atlantic region for the last 155 years must be caused by human industri. - I can't stress enough, how genuinely weird that claim is! - It amounts to denial...

Do we see anything untowards or in any way unusual in the icecore data? The answer must be a very firm: abolutely not! Right up until 1993 there's not a trace of warming, which might not be absolutely natural. Actually the trends for the last one thousand years show a full degree of average cooling and placing the 1940'es in a warmer place than the early 1990'es. - Where have I seen that before...?


But what about the warming since 1780: is it not incredibly unnatural - and to die from? No, it is completely within the bounds of natural variabillity and has been repeated too many times to count throughout the holocene, where at times temperatures were 1,5 degrees C hotter.

As we have seen: since 1993 Arctic temperatures went up by an average degree C. By the same token: at the present rate of decline temperatures could be back to 1993, which also happens to be 1978, levels in 6 years. To top it off: under a global warming scenario, where you have got to detrend the AMO, because it must be under the influence, you would expect the Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica to show some warming as well. It does not:

It seems to me quite obvious then, that instead of changing sound data, to accomplish nothing but obscuring facts, it is much simpler to assume that the state of the Arctic is generally derived from North Atlantic SST or vice versa, and manifests itself in 'global' temperature products.  Both of which coincidentaly follows the phases of solar cycle length rather neatly.

From the Danish Meterological Institutes survay of glacier melt in east Greenland: 
Overordnet viser sedimentkernen, at kælvningen har været stor ikke alene i 00'erne, men også midt i forrige århundrede omkring 30'erne og 40'erne. Det er begge perioder, hvor der også var relativt varmt i både luften og de dybere vandlag samt relativ mindre havis end normalt.
The text translates to:
Generally the sediment cores show, that calving has been extensive not only in the first decade of 21st century but also in the 30'es and 40'es of the 20th century. Both periods have seen relavtively mild air conditions and warmer subsurface, sea temperatures, as well as less sea ice.
Many times on this blog I have also quoted these statements of times passed:

Warming Arctic Climate Melting Glaciers Faster, Raising Ocean Level, Scientist Says - “A mysterious warming of the climate is slowly manifesting itself in the Arctic, engendering a “serious international problem,” Dr. Hans Ahlmann, noted Swedish geophysicist, said today. - New York Times, May 30, 1937.

The United States and the Soviet Union are mounting large-scale investigations to determine why the Arctic climate is becoming more frigid, why parts of the Arctic sea ice have recently become ominously thicker and whether the extent of that ice cover contributes to the onset of ice ages.” - New York Times, July 18, 1970 

Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer (2008), report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field. “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker. - National Geographic News, June 20, 2008.

There is yet another ocean which shares the same latitudes as the North Atlantic, and that would be the North Pacific. As it happens that ocean also undergo drastic climatic change on decadal time scales. This Pacific climate variabillty is reffered to as the PDO:
Updated standardized values for the PDO index, derived as the leading PC of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean, poleward of 20N. The monthly mean global average SST anomalies are removed to separate this pattern of variability from any "global warming" signal that may be present in the data.
In other words: We assume (no argument) that the PDO cannot be the cause of "global warming", so we detrend by subtracting the "global" average mean... This biased top -> down approach eliminates from the outset any possibility that "global warming" could be a regional phenomenon which in time propagates, possibly through both the physical and mathematical universe, to become "global warming". For instance it cannot due to this axiom be assumed, that for reasons as of yet unknown the Atlantic Ocean responds to some aspect of solar cycle properties which modulate Arctic climate in turn influencing the North Pacific.

The graph on the right handside is the result of an experiment: I scaled PDO data to 1/6 and added AMO data. Remember that the PDO is essentially detrended by the global SST mean, which has a rising linear trend, so the PDO/6+AMO is probably too warm in the past and too cold in the present. However, do not fail to concider another likely contributing source to the descrepancy: GISS adjustments. Adjustments have at least two purposes: 1) increase trend to overstate warming and 2) eliminate variation, because models cannot simulate them. This produce two distinct signatures: 1) early datapoints are adjusted negative, late datapoints are adjusted positive and 2) 40'es warm episode and 70'es cold episode are flattened. The second graph on the right is provided from Hansen et al. 1981 (PDF) for comparison.

Bearing all this in mind: the fit to GISSTemp is nevertheless striking. Note: NH is short for Northern Hemisphere.

Curriously specific items can be located in bulk at the same lattitudes as the North Pacific and North Atlantic: the majority of the worlds thermometers. Actual instruments make readings in a local setting, any subsequent  manouvers (methods) are nothing but abstractions, which in the end ensures that the 'regions' excibiting variation become 'global' phenomena?

In information theory we would term the global temperature anomaly products: a loss of information; we loose a lot to gain a little. That 'gain', having little intrinsic scientific value, lies mainly in the message department: clear, simple and visual. Waging an information war with as little information as possible is ironically the sign and predicament of 'the information age' - which started long before the 1980'es: back then it was termed propaganda.

Probability theory will tell you that rolling a die should result in one particular side showing face up every 1 in 6 rolls. However, anyone who actually rolls dice on a regular basis will know, that real dice do not conform to this theoretical prescription. Does that make probability theory useless? No, but you sure as hell better understand its limitation (it's an abstraction) before you walk into a casino with your life savings. Or in the case of the western world: the money you borrowed in China.

As an aside, the psycological analysis is equally damning: The prophets of doom are vastly more interested in the moral implications than in the scientific ones: When you need to control someone - any righteuos preacher will know this - there's no greater enemy than knowledge and no more effective a tool than guild, which entails the need for payment and sacrifice in order to evade almighty wrath. Organized religion has preyed upon this (insecure) human need for absolution throughout history - it's the precursor of all psycologically incarnated power.

For all our rational and scientific aspirations we fail these concepts misserably: had we any other prospect we would humbly admit to our innermost desires and walk into this religious trap at the very least with our eyes open. But that would spoil the emmotional effect, and we would then emmidiately start looking for a substitute outlet: how to build yet another virtual pyramid on the backs of the poor, while enscribing those scientific tombs with monumental 'rationalisations' concerning our good will towards men - and our oh so selfless desire to save them from themselves.

Per